Polling

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9 JULY 2014

LNP SUPPORT SLUMPS ACROSS QUEENSLAND SEATS

Support for the LNP has slumped across a range of Queensland seats. The poll of more than 2,000 voters in the electorates of Gaven, Hervey Bay, Maroochydore and Pumicestone has revealed swings against the Newman government of up to 18 percent.

Gaven

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 55.2% 40%
Labor Party 22.8% 29%
Palmer United Party -% 21%
The Greens 5.6% 6%
Katter Australian Party 8.8% 1%
Other 7.6% 3%

2% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 69.1% 56%
Labor Party 30.9% 44%

Hervey Bay

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 59.2% 41%
Labor Party 21.2% 34%
Palmer United Party -% 17%
The Greens 3.4% 3%
Katter Australian Party 12.4% 1%
Other 3.8% 4%

4% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 71.7% 54%
Labor Party 28.3% 46%

Maroochydore

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 58.2% 40%
Labor Party 20.1% 25%
Palmer United Party -% 22%
The Greens 13.0% 10%
Katter Australian Party 8.7% 1%
Other -% 2%

1% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 70.9% 58%
Labor Party 29.1% 42%

Pumicestone

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 53.2% 41%
Labor Party 30.4% 37%
Palmer United Party -% 13%
The Greens 6.0% 5%
Katter Australian Party 10.4% 1%
Other -% 3%

1% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012 9 July 2014
LNP 62.1% 52%
Labor Party 37.9% 48%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 9 July 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 503 voters in Gaven, 546 voters in Hervey Bay, 513 voters in Maroochydore and 578 voters in Pumicestone. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.

26-28 May 2014

MIKE BAIRD INHERITS ELECTION WINNING LEAD

The NSW Coalition would comfortably win a state election if it was held this week.  While the gap between the parties has closed significantly since the Coalition’s  landslide election win in 2011, Mike Baird enjoys a substantial lead over John Robertson on the question of the better Premier.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 12/16 Sept 2012 26/28 May 2014
The Labor Party 25.6% 31% 37%
The Liberal Party 38.6% 42% 38%
The Nationals 12.5% 5% 5%
Total Coalition 51.1% 47% 43%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 11%
Another party or an independent candidate 13.0% 11% 9%

8% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics.  If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 12/16 Sept 2012 26/28 May 2014
The Labor Party 35.8% 42% 47%
Coalition 64.2% 58% 53%

Better Premier

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Mike Baird 43% 24% 69%
John Robertson 11% 24% 3%
Uncommitted 46% 52% 28%

Who do you think would make the better Premier? 

 

This survey was administered by Galaxy Research, using a combination of online and telephone interviews between 26 May and 28 May 2014.  The results are based on the opinions of 815 voters.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

21-22 May 2014

LNP RECOVERS LOST GROUND IN QUEENSLAND

The LNP has recovered from the slump observed earlier in the year but Campbell Newman’s satisfaction rating continues to fall.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2013 13/14 Nov 2013 5/6 Feb 2014 21/22 May 2014
LNP 49.7% 45% 41% 43%
Labor 26.7% 33% 36% 34%
The Greens 7.5% 8% 8% 8%
Katter Australian Party 11.5% 5% 6% 5%
Another party or independent 4.6% 9% 9% 10%

8% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a state election for Queensland was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012* 13/14 Nov 2013 5/6 Feb 2014 21/22 May 2014
LNP 62.8% 57% 53% 55%
Labor 37.2% 43% 47% 45%

*Malcolm Mackerras estimates

Satisfaction with Campbell Newman

21/22 May 2014 Supporters
13/14 Nov 2013 5/6 Feb 2014 Total Labor LNP
Satisfied 43% 40% 36% 9% 72%
Dissatisfied 49% 53% 55% 87% 23%
Uncommitted 8% 7% 9% 4% 5%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Firstly, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Campbell Newman is doing his job as Premier?


These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evening of 21-22 May 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 800 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Queensland population.

14-16 May 2014

COALITION FACE HARD SELL ON THE BUDGET

Joe Hockey and his Liberal colleagues will face hard sell to convince voters of the need for his austerity budget. The overwhelming majority expect to be worse off as a result of the Coalition’s first budget and the Government has so far failed to convince voters that the changes included in the budget will be good for the Australian economy.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014 14/16 May 2014
Coalition 45.5% 43% 39% 38%
Labor Party 33.4% 37% 37% 38%
The Greens 8.7% 10% 11% 10%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 6% 8%
Another party or independent 6.9% 6% 7% 6%

7% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014 14/16 May 2014
Coaltion 53.5% 50% 48% 47%
Labor Party 46.5% 50% 52% 53%

Better or worse off after budget

14/16 May 2014 Supporters
10/11 May 2012 15/16 May 2013 Total Labor Coalition
Much better off 3% 2% 3% 1% 7%
A little better off 20% 12% 8% 3% 15%
Total better off 23% 14% 11% 4% 22%
A little worse off 27% 30% 42% 40% 51%
Much worse off 19% 18% 33% 47% 9%
Total worse off 46% 48% 75% 87% 60%
Uncommitted 31% 38% 14% 9% 18%

Thinking now about the federal budget handed down by the Treasurer Joe Hockey on Tuesday night. Overall, do you believe that as a result of the changes in the budget you personally will be better off or worse off?

Budget good or bad for Australian economy

14/16 May 2014 Supporters
14/16 May 2010 11/12 May 2011 Total Labor Coalition
Very good 7% 5% 11% 1% 26%
Quite good 36% 23% 30% 18% 55%
Total good 43% 28% 41% 19% 81%
Quite bad 17% 27% 27% 40% 9%
Very bad 11% 12% 19% 28% 2%
Total bad 28% 39% 46% 68% 11%
Uncommitted 29% 33% 13% 13% 8%

Do you believe this budget will be good or bad for the Australian economy?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 14 May and 16 May 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1399 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

30 April – 1 May

COALITION CONTINUE TO SLIDE

Support for the Coalition continues to slide as the first Budget for the new Government approaches. So far, the Coalition has been unable to convince voters of the need for austerity and there is widespread opposition to some of the revenue saving measures being proposed in the Budget.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014
Coalition 45.5% 43% 39%
Labor Party 33.4% 37% 37%
The Greens 8.7% 10% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 6%
Another party or independent 6.9% 6% 7%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014 30 Apr/1 May 2014
Coaltion 53.5% 50% 48%
Labor Party 46.5% 50% 52%

Deficit levy

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 72% 90% 52%
No 21% 6% 41%
Uncommitted 7% 4% 7%

Thinking now about the federal Budget. One option to raise revenue would be a deficit levy. This would be a short-term tax on incomes above $80,000 a year. Given that Tony Abbott announced before the election that there would be no new taxes, if the Government was to introduce this deficit levy in the Budget would you consider this a broken promise?

Pension age

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
In favour 21% 13% 34%
Opposed 69% 81% 57%
Uncommitted 10% 6% 9%

Are you in favour or opposed to lifting the pension age to 70 years?

Medicare co-payment

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
In favour 35% 25% 54%
Opposed 55% 67% 36%
Uncommitted 10% 8% 10%

Are you in favour or opposed to a $6 co-payment for bulk-billed GP visits?

Paid parental leave

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 23% 23% 26%
No 65% 67% 62%
Uncommitted 12% 10% 12%

In your opinion, should Tony Abbott proceed with the Paid Parental Leave scheme in the current budgetary environment?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 30 April and 1 May 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,391 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

28/30 March 2014

FEDERAL COALITION AND LABOR NECK AND NECK

Primary support for the Coalition has slipped since the election last year and they are now running neck and neck with Labor. If Joe Hockey hands down a tough Budget in May this would be likely to undermine support in the Coalition even further as the new government has been unable to convince voters of the need to curb spending on welfare.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014
Coalition 45.5% 43%
Labor Party 33.4% 37%
The Greens 8.7% 10%
Another party or independent 12.4% 10%

7% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Mar 2014
Coaltion 53.5% 50%
Labor Party 46.5% 50%

Accept cuts to welfare

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 34% 18% 56%
No 56% 73% 34%
Uncommitted 10% 9% 10%

The federal Budget will be handed down in May by Joe Hockey. It is likely that this will include cuts to government spending. Do you accept that this should include cuts to the amount the government spends on welfare?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on the weekend of 28-30 March 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 998 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

17 March 2014

VOTERS WANT INDEPENDENTS TO SUPPORT MARSHALL

The majority of voters in the seats of Fisher and Frome would like their independent local members to support Steven Marshall in order to permit the Liberals to form a minority government. The voters believe the Independents should look beyond their local electorate and base their decision on the interests of all South Australians.

Party Independents should support

  Total Fisher Frome
Labor Party 31% 27% 35%
Liberal Party 60% 66% 53%
Uncommitted 9% 7% 12%

In your opinion, which party should (Geoff Brock/ Bob Such) support to permit them to form government?

Basis of decision

  Total Fisher Frome
Best deal for his electorate 29% 22% 37%
Best outcome for SA 61% 70% 52%
Uncommitted 10% 8% 11%

In your opinion, should (Geoff Brock/ Bob Such) make the decision about which party to side with on the basis of securing the best deal for his electorate or ensuring the best outcome for South Australia?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 17 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 382 voters in the electorate of Fisher and 317 voters in the electorate of Frome. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.

12 March 2014

HANNA TO DETERMINE OUTCOME IN MITCHELL

The preferences of the Independent candidate, Kris Hanna, will determine the outcome in the seat of Mitchell.  Neither the sitting member, Alan Sibbons, nor the Liberal candidate, Corey Wingard, will secure the primary vote required to win the seat and so both will be reliant on preferences.  With Kris Hanna attracting the lion’s share of the minor party votes his preferences will be pivotal to the outcome.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 34.2% 38%
Liberal Party 28.5% 36%
Kris Hanna 27.8% 19%
 The Greens 5.1% 4%
Family First 4.3% 3%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 52.4% 51%
Liberal Party 47.6% 49%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 12 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 586 voters in the electorate of Mitchell.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

12 March 2014

NEWLAND IN THE BALANCE

On the eve of the state election the seat of Newland is hanging in the balance.  With neither the sitting Labor member, Tom Kenyon, nor the Liberal candidate likely to secure the primary vote required to secure the seat, both will be reliant on the preferences of the minor parties.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 43.2% 44%
Liberal Party 38.1% 42%
The Greens 8.0% 6%
Family First 6.9% 8%
Other 3.8% -

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 12 Mar 2014
Labor Party 52.6% 51%
Liberal Party 47.4% 49%

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 12 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 503 voters in the electorate of Newland.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.

4 March 2014

SANDERSON SAFELY HOLDING ADELAIDE

Rachel Sanderson, who achieved a shock 14.5% swing in the 2010 election to win the seat of Adelaide, looks set to be returned at the state election on 15 March.  Voters in the seat have generally been satisfied with her performance over the last four years and this has reduced the likelihood of Labor regaining the seat.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2010 4 Mar 2014
Labor Party 33.3% 39%
Liberal Party 44.5% 49%
The Greens 11.7% 8%
Dignity for Disability 1.9% 4%
Other 8.6% -

4% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2010 4 Mar 2014
Labor Party 45.8% 46%
Liberal Party 54.2% 54%

Satisfaction with Rachel Sanderson

    Supporters  
  Total Labor Liberal
Satisfied 51% 19% 80%
Dissatisfied 26% 53% 5%
Uncommitted 23% 28% 15%

Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rachel Sanderson has represented Adelaide as your member of parliament?

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 4 March 2014 and is based on the opinions of 587 voters in the electorate of Adelaide.  The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of the electorate.


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