NO BUDGET BOUNCE FOR LABOR
While the Budget has not provided the much needed bounce the government needs, voters have decided not to punish Labor for a Budget that many feel will leave them worse off. On the positive side for Labor, the majority of voters approve of the government’s scrapping of the Baby Bonus.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
9-11 Apr 2013 |
15-16 May 2013 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
32% |
33% |
34% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
12% |
12% |
10% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
10% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
9-11 Apr 2013 |
15-16 May 2013 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
55% |
54% |
54% |
Better off/ worse off after budget
|
|
15-16 May 2013 |
|
|
|
Supporters |
|
9-11 Apr 2012 |
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| Much better off |
3% |
2% |
5% |
1% |
| A little better off |
20% |
12% |
23% |
5% |
| Total better off |
23% |
14% |
28% |
6% |
| A little worse off |
27% |
30% |
23% |
36% |
| Much worse off |
19% |
18% |
3% |
30% |
| Total worse off |
46% |
48% |
26% |
66% |
| Uncommitted |
31% |
38% |
46% |
28% |
Thinking now about the federal budget handed down by the Treasurer Wayne Swan on Tuesday night. Overall, do you believe that as a result of the changes in the budget you personally will be better off or worse off?
Scrapping of Baby Bonus
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| In favour |
64% |
75% |
61% |
| Opposed |
22% |
17% |
25% |
| Uncommitted |
14% |
8% |
14% |
In the budget Wayne Swan announced the scrapping of the Baby Bonus. Overall, are you in favour or opposed to the Baby Bonus being scrapped?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 15-16 May 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 1,006 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
SUCCESS OVERSEAS BRINGS LITTLE JOY FOR LABOR
Julia Gillard’s success in signing a landmark deal with China has done little to restore the Labor Party’s fortunes. Support for the party still languishes at historically low levels and, after Wayne Swan’s recent announcement of changes to superannuation in the Budget, voters are more likely to trust the Coalition with their savings.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
9-11 Apr 2013 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
6% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
9-11 Apr 2013 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
45% |
45% |
46% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
54% |
Trust with superannuation
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| The Labor Party |
34% |
75% |
4% |
| The Coalition |
45% |
10% |
79% |
| Uncommitted |
21% |
15% |
17% |
Who are you most likely to trust with your superannuation?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 9-11 April 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 1,005 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
LABOR ESCAPES BACKLASH BUT GILLARD CONSIDERED LAME DUCK LEADER
The federal Labor Party has escaped voter backlash following the leadership stoush but the majority of voters now believe Julia Gillard has become a lame duck leader and that Labor’s leadership instability has damaged the office of Prime Minister.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
35% |
32% |
32% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
47% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
8% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
22-23 Mar 2013 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
54% |
55% |
55% |
Office of Prime Minister
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| Yes |
71% |
56% |
87% |
| No |
21% |
39% |
10% |
| Uncommitted |
8% |
5% |
3% |
After the events of this week do you think that the office of Prime Minister has been damaged by Labor’s leadership instability?
Julia Gillard As Leader
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| Only legitimate leader |
26% |
47% |
13% |
| Lame duck leader |
60% |
39% |
81% |
| Uncommitted |
14% |
14% |
6% |
Do you think that Julia Gillard has now confirmed that she is the only legitimate leader of the Labor Party or has she become a lame duck leader?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on 22-23 March 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 1,005 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
SUPPORT FOR FEDERAL LABOR SLIDES FURTHER
Support for federal Labor has slid further and the majority of voters now believe that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party represent a credible alternative government that is capable of running the country.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
34% |
35% |
32% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
7% |
7% |
9% |
6% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
5-7 Mar 2013 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
46% |
46% |
45% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
Labor Leadership
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| Stick with Julia Gillard |
32% |
48% |
25% |
| Dump Julia Gillard for Kevin Rudd |
26% |
29% |
22% |
| Or, elect a fresh face such as Bill Shorten or Greg Combet |
33% |
18% |
42% |
| Uncommitted |
9% |
5% |
11% |
In your opinion, what should Labor do about the leadership of the party?
Tony Abbott Ready To Govern
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor |
Coalition |
| Would be ready |
59% |
35% |
85% |
| Not ready |
36% |
63% |
13% |
| Uncommitted |
5% |
2% |
2% |
If Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party were to win the next federal election do you believe they would or would not be ready to govern the country?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on 5-7 March 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 1,010 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
RUDD LEADERSHIP COULD BOOST LABOR IN QUEENSLAND
The reinstatement of Kevin Rudd as leader could boost primary support for Labor by as much as 14 points in Queensland. Such a result would deliver a two party preferred split of 53% for Labor versus 47% for the Coalition, an 8 percentage point improvement on the outcome at the last federal election.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
22/23 Aug 2012 |
21/22 Nov 2012 |
20/21 Feb 2013 |
| Labor |
33.6% |
30% |
33% |
33% |
| LNP |
47.4% |
49% |
46% |
46% |
| The Greens |
10.9% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
| The Katter Australian Party |
- |
- |
6% |
6% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
8.1% |
11% |
7% |
6% |
4% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
22/23 Aug 2012 |
21/22 Nov 2012 |
20/21 Feb 2013 |
| Labor |
44.9% |
43% |
44% |
45% |
| LNP |
55.1% |
57% |
56% |
55% |
Primary Vote with Kevin Rudd as Labor Party leader
|
% |
| Labor |
47% |
| LNP |
41% |
| The Greens |
5% |
| The Katter Australian Party |
3% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
4% |
2% uncommitted or refused excluded
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party and Tony Abbott leader of the Liberal Party which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred with Kevin Rudd as Labor Party leader
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. This most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 20-21 February 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 800 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Queensland population.
WOMEN SUPPORTING LIBERALS, DESPITE CONCERNS ABOUT TONY ABBOTT
Female voters are supporting the Liberal Party despite concerns about its leader, Tony Abbott. At the same time, they don’t consider Julia Gillard to be any more trustworthy than the opposition leader and are divided on whether the Prime Minister has been a good role model for women.
These are the main findings of the first female only Galaxy Poll.
Primary Vote
|
17-18 Aug 2010 |
13-15 Feb 2013 |
| Labor Party |
39% |
36% |
| Coalition |
43% |
46% |
| The Greens |
12% |
10% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6% |
8% |
9% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
17-18 Aug 2010 |
13-15 Feb 2013 |
| Labor Party |
51% |
47% |
| Coalition |
49% |
53% |
Julia Gillard as a role model
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Good role model |
44% |
76% |
23% |
| Disappointing |
43% |
15% |
68% |
| Uncommitted |
13% |
9% |
9% |
On balance, do you think Julia Gillard has been a good role model for women or has she been a disappointing role model?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on 13-15 February 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 800 female voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
ABBOTT IN POLE POSITION
Tony Abbott commences the seven and a half month campaign with an election winning lead. The calling of the election by Julia Gillard has not produced the circuit breaker Labor required and with primary support for the party below the vote achieved at the last election they continue to trail the Coalition by a wide margin.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
35% |
34% |
35% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
47% |
48% |
48% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
6% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
1-3 Feb 2013 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
47% |
46% |
46% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
53% |
54% |
54% |
Believe Julia Gillard
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Yes |
41% |
67% |
21% |
| No |
53% |
25% |
76% |
| Uncommitted |
6% |
8% |
3% |
Julia Gillard said that she announced the date of the federal election to end the speculation over when the poll will be held and to provide certainty to the country. Do you believe this explanation?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 1-3 February 2013. The results are based on the opinions of 1,015 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
DOUBTS ABOUT PM’S RESPONSE TO ALLEGATIONS
Only one in five voters believe that Julia Gillard has been open and honest in responding to the allegations about her involvement in the AWU union slush fund. In contrast, 31% think that she has lied and 31% believe that she has been economical with the truth. Despite these concerns, primary support for Labor is little changed since the beginning of November.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
15-17 June 2012 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
31% |
35% |
34% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
48% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
12% |
11% |
11% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
9% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
15-17 June 2012 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
29-30 Nov 2012 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
44% |
47% |
46% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
56% |
53% |
54% |
AWU slush fund
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Completely open and honest |
21% |
47% |
8% |
| Economical with the truth |
31% |
27% |
33% |
| She has lied |
31% |
9% |
50% |
| Uncommitted |
17% |
17% |
9% |
Julia Gillard has been embroiled in allegations surrounding an AWU slush fund. In your opinion, has Julia Gillard been completely open and honest in responding to the allegations, has she been economical with the truth or do you think she has lied?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on 29-30 November 2012. The results are based on the opinions of 1,015 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
LNP SUPPORT DOWN IN QUEENSLAND
Support for the LNP in Queensland has fallen sharply since the state election, with the majority of voters now of the opinion that the Campbell Newman Government has failed to live up to expectations.
Primary Vote
|
Election Mar 2012 |
22-23 Aug 2012 |
21-22 Nov 2012 |
| LNP |
49.7% |
48% |
44% |
| Labor |
26.7% |
30% |
33% |
| The Greens |
7.5% |
9% |
9% |
| Australian Party |
11.5% |
7% |
7% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
4.6% |
6% |
7% |
4% uncommitted or refused excluded
If a state election for Queensland was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Mar 2012* |
22-23 Aug 2012 |
21-22 Nov 2012 |
| LNP |
64.0% |
60% |
56% |
| Labor |
36.0% |
40% |
44% |
*Estimate
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. This most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 21-22 November 2012. The results are based on the opinions of 801 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Queensland population..
FEDERAL LEADERS FAIL TO IMPRESS
The majority of voters do not believe Julia Gillard’s account of events in the plot to dump Kevin Rudd and the former leader is still considered the best choice to lead the Labor Party.
But Tony Abbott is also facing a crisis of confidence with the majority of voters of the opinion that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better choice of leader for the federal Liberal Party.
Primary Vote
|
Election Aug 2010 |
27-29 April 2012 |
15-17 June 2012 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
| Labor Party |
38.0% |
30% |
31% |
35% |
| Coalition |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
47% |
| The Greens |
11.8% |
13% |
12% |
11% |
| Another Party or an independent candidate |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% uncommitted or refused excluded
Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?
Two party preferred
|
Election Aug 2010 |
27-29 April 2012 |
15-17 June 2012 |
2-4 Nov 2012 |
| Labor Party |
50.1% |
44% |
44% |
47% |
| Coalition |
49.9% |
56% |
56% |
53% |
Best choice for Labor leader
|
23-24 Feb 2012 |
|
2-4 November 2012 Supporters |
|
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Kevin Rudd |
52% |
49% |
39% |
57% |
| Julia Gillard |
26% |
34% |
57% |
19% |
| Uncommitted |
22% |
17% |
4% |
24% |
Thinking just about the leadership of the Labor Party. Which one of the following do you believe would be the best choice for leader of the federal Labor Party?
Best choice for Liberal leader
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Malcolm Turnbull |
60% |
75% |
51% |
| Tony Abbott |
29% |
14% |
45% |
| Uncommitted |
11% |
11% |
4% |
And which one of the following do you believe would be the best choice for leader of the federal Liberal Party?
Believe Julia Gillard
|
|
Supporters |
|
Total |
Labor
|
Coalition
|
| Yes |
25% |
42% |
11% |
| No |
63% |
44% |
81% |
| Uncommitted |
12% |
14% |
8% |
It has been suggested recently that Julia Gillard was involved in the plot to dump Kevin Rudd from the leadership. Julia Gillard has denied this accusation and claims that she only became involved in the plan on the day of the leadership ballot. On balance, do you believe Julia Gillard’s account of the events leading up to the leadership spill?
These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 2-4 November 2012. The results are based on the opinions of 1,003 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.
