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13/15 May 2015

FEDERAL COALITION NARROWED THE GAP

The federal Coalition has narrowed the gap on Labor. In the first post-Budget poll conducted by Galaxy, the Coalition is ahead of Labor on primary support and trail on two party preferred by just 4 points. This represents a significant turnaround from the Galaxy Polls conducted earlier in the year when Tony Abbott’s leadership was under threat.

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Jan 2015 4/5 Feb 2015 13/15 May 2015
Coalition 45.5% 36% 36% 41%
Labor Party 33.4% 43% 43% 39%
The Greens 8.7% 11% 11% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 3% 3% 2%
Another party or an independent candidate 6.9% 7% 7% 7%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 28/30 Jan 2015 4/5 Feb 2015 13/15 May 2015
Coalition 53.5% 43% 43% 48%
The Labor Party 46.5% 57% 57% 52%

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 13-15 May 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 1,683 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

24/25 March 2015

COALITION ENDS CAMPAIGN WITH BIG LEAD

Voter across New South Wales will put their trust in Mike Baird and re-elect the Coalition government on Saturday.

The Coalition leads 55% to 45% on a two party preferred basis in the last week of the campaign.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 11/12 Mar 2015 18/19 Mar 2015 24/25 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 25.6% 36% 36% 34%
Coalition 51.1% 44% 45% 45%
The Greens 10.3% 10% 10% 11%
Another party or an independent candidate 13% 10% 9% 10%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. In the state election to be held this Saturday, which one of the following are you most likely to vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 11/12 Mar 2015 18/19 Mar 2015 24/25 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 35.8% 46% 46% 45%
Coalition 64.2% 54% 54% 55%

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 24-25 March 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 1,300 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

18/19 March 2015

COALITION MAINTAIN LEAD IN NSW

The Coalition has maintained an election winning lead over the Labor Party despite losing the argument over the virtues of the planned privatisation of the state’s electricity assets.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 18/19 Feb 2015 11/12 Mar 2015 18/19 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 25.6% 36% 36% 36%
Coalition 51.1% 43% 44% 45%
The Greens 10.3% 10% 10% 10%
Another party or an independent candidate 13% 11% 10% 9%

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 18/19 Feb 2015 11/12 Mar 2015 18/19 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 35.8% 47% 46% 46%
Coalition 64.2% 53% 54% 54%

Privatisation

18/19 Mar 2015
20/21 Aug 2014 21/22 Jan 2015 Total Labor Coalition
In favour 38% 39% 33% 8% 63%
Opposed 53% 51% 53% 80% 22%
Uncommitted 9% 10% 14% 12% 15%

Are you in favour or opposed to Mike Baird’s proposed plan to privatise 49% of NSW’s electricity networks through a 99 year lease sale to raise more than $20 billion which will be used to improve the state’s transport system?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 18-19 March 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 908 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

19 March 2015

LIBERAL SUPPORT HOLDING UP IN KEY SEATS

The Liberal Party is ahead in some of the key seats that many expect to be within reach for the Labor Party.

These are the main findings of the latest Galaxy Poll conducted in the seats of Campbelltown (swing required 6.8%), Coogee (8.3%) and The Entrance (11.8%).

In all seats polled primary support for Labor has improved since the last election, with increases ranging from around 7 percentage points in Campbelltown to around 10 points in Coogee and The Entrance.

However, Liberal support is holding up at levels similar to those achieved at the last election.

Following the allocation of preferences the swing to Labor in each electorate is;

The Entrance 10.8%
Coogee 6.3%
Campbelltown 5.8%

These fall just short of the swing required for Labor to win these seats.

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 19 March 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 514 voters in Campbelltown, 550 voters in Coogee and 535 voters in The Entrance. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.

11/12 Mar 2015

COALITION MAINTAIN LEAD DESPITE OPPOSITION TO POLES AND WIRES PLAN

The Coalition has maintained a lead over the Labor Party despite voters rejecting Mike Baird’s plan to lease 49% of the electricity poles and wires to pay for infrastructure.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 21/22 Jan 2015 18/19 Feb 2015 11/12 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 25.6% 36% 36% 36%
Coalition 51.1% 45% 43% 44%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 10% 10%
Another party or an independent candidate 13% 8% 11% 10%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 21/22 Jan 2015 18/19 Feb 2015 11/12 Mar 2015
The Labor Party 35.8% 46% 47% 46%
Coalition 64.2% 54% 53% 54%

Upper House obligated to pass poles and wires legislation

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Yes 32% 19% 55%
No 48% 65% 28%
Uncommitted 20% 16% 17%

If Mike Baird wins the election, do you believe the Upper House is obligated to pass his legislation to lease 49 per cent of the electricity poles and wires to pay for infrastructure?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered using a combination of online and telephone interviews on 11 March and 12 March 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 820 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

18/19 Feb 2015

COALITION CONTINUES TO HAVE UPPER HAND IN NSW

The Coalition continues to have the upper hand over Labor and Mike Baird is well ahead of Luke Foley on the question of the better Premier. However, support for the Coalition has slipped and Luke Foley has improved his standing in the latest Galaxy Poll

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 6/7 Jan 2015 21/22 Jan 2015 18/19 Feb 2015
The Labor Party 25.6% 36% 36% 36%
Coalition 51.1% 44% 45% 43%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 11% 10%
Another party or an independent candidate 13% 9% 8% 11%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 6/7 Jan 2015 21/22 Jan 2015 18/19 Feb 2015
The Labor Party 35.8% 46% 46% 47%
Coalition 64.2% 54% 54% 53%

Better Premier

18/19 Feb 2015 Supporters
6/7 Jan 2015 Total Labor Coalition
Mike Baird 47% 46% 28% 72%
Luke Foley 16% 22% 35% 11%
Uncommitted 37% 32% 37% 17%

Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 18 and 19 February 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 923 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

4/5 February 2015

TURNBULL COULD LIFT COALITION SUPPORT

Support for the Coalition remains at a record low on the eve of the leadership spill in Canberra but the latest Galaxy Poll suggests that the reinstatement of Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Liberal Party would lift the flagging fortunes of the government.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 2/4 Dec 2014 28/30 Jan 2015 4/5 Feb 2015
Coalition 45.5% 38% 36% 36%
Labor Party 33.4% 41% 43% 43%
The Greens 8.7% 11% 11% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 3% 3%
Another party or an independent candidate 6.9% 6% 7% 7%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 2/4 Dec 2014 28/30 Jan 2015 4/5 Feb 2015
Coalition 53.5% 45% 43% 43%
Labor Party 46.5% 55% 57% 57%

Primary vote with Malcolm Turnbull as leader

Total
Coalition 42%
Labor Party 38%
The Greens 10%
Palmer United Party 3%
Another party or an independent candidate 7%

8% uncommitted or refused excluded

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred with Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal party leader

Total
Coalition 49%
Labor Party 51%

Primary vote with Julie Bishop as leader

Total
Coalition 39%
Labor Party 40%
The Greens 11%
Palmer United Party 3%
Another party or an independent candidate 7%

8% uncommitted or refused excluded

If Julie Bishop was leader of the Liberal Party which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred with Julie Bishop as Liberal party leader

Total
Coalition 47%
Labor Party 53%

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews on 4-5 February 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 1,466 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

28/30 Jan 2015

SUPPORT FOR THE COALITION SLUMPS

Support for the Coalition has slumped following Tony Abbott’s ‘Captains pick’ in awarding Prince Philip a knighthood in the Australia Day Honours List. The widespread opposition to awarding Australia’s highest honour to a member of the British royal family has had a significant impact on the standing of Tony Abbott and his Coalition government.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014 2/4 Dec 2014 28/30 Jan 2015
Coalition 45.5% 42% 38% 36%
Labor Party 33.4% 36% 41% 43%
The Greens 8.7% 12% 11% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 4% 4% 3%
Another party or an independent candidate 6.9% 6% 6% 7%

8% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014 2/4 Dec 2014 28/30 Jan 2015
Coalition 53.5% 49% 45% 43%
Labor Party 46.5% 51% 55% 57%

Better Prime Minister

28/30 Nov 2014 Supporters
23/25 July 2014 Total Coalition Labor
Tony Abbott 35% 27% 68% 6%
Bill Shorten 41% 44% 9% 76%
Uncommitted 24% 29% 23% 18%

Which one of the following do you believe would make the better Prime Minister?

Prince Philips knighthood

Supporters
Total Coalition Labor
Approve 14% 26% 7%
Disapprove 70% 55% 83%
Uncommitted 16% 19% 10%

Do you approve or disapprove of the decision by Tony Abbott to award a knighthood to the Queen’s husband, Prince Philip?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 28-30 January 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 1,452 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

21/22 Jan 2015

MIXED RESPONSE FOR FOLEY

There has been a mixed response to new Labor leader Luke Foley. While many voters applaud his initiative to safeguard the sale of lottery tickets through newsagents and small businesses, his confession concerning his record for illegal drink driving could cost Labor votes.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 19/20 Nov 2014 6/7 Jan 2015 21/22 Jan 2015
The Labor Party 25.6% 34% 36% 36%
The Liberal Party 38.6% 40% 38% 39%
The Nationals 12.5% 6% 6% 6%
Total Coalition 51.1% 46% 44% 45%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 11% 11%
Another party or an independent candidate 13.0% 9% 9% 8%

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 19/20 Nov 2014 6/7 Jan 2015 21/22 Jan 2015
The Labor Party 35.8% 44% 46% 46%
Coalition 64.2% 56% 54% 54%

Drink Driving

Total
More likely to vote Labor 5%
Less likely to vote Labor 17%
Not affect vote 75%
Uncommitted 3%

Has Luke Foley’s confession that he has a record for illegal drink driving made you more likely to vote for Labor, less likely to vote Labor or will this not affect the way that you vote in the March state election?

Sale of lottery tickets

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Support 81% 87% 77%
Oppose 10% 6% 13%
Uncommitted 9% 7% 10%

Currently supermarkets are prevented from selling lottery tickets but this agreement is due to expire soon. Luke Foley has announced that he will continue this arrangement so that only newsagents and small businesses can sell lottery tickets. Do you support or oppose Labor’s plan to safeguard the sale of lottery tickets through newsagents and small businesses?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 21 and 22 January 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 954 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

14 January 2015

LNP SEATS SET TO TUMBLE IN QUEENSLAND

The Newman Government looks set to lose many of the seats they won in the 2012 landslide election with Labor supporters that rejected the Bligh Government returning to the fold after three years under Campbell Newman.

These are the main findings of the latest Galaxy Poll conducted in the seats of Cairns, Barron River, Mulgrave, Greenslopes, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, Townsville and Pumicestone.

In all seats polled primary support for Labor has improved substantially since the last election and this has resulted in the following two party preferred swings;

Townsville 12.8%
Cairns 11.9%
Mundingburra 11.2%
Greenslopes 10.5%
Pumicestone 10.1%
Mulgrave 9.9%
Barron River 9.5%
Thuringowa 8.7%

If swings of this magnitude are observed at the ballot box then Labor would retain Mulgrave and win back Townsville, Cairns and Greenslopes. The Townsville seats of Mundingburra and Thuringowa would be close as would Barron River.

At this stage of the campaign, it is only in the seat of Pumicestone that the LNP sitting member, Lisa France, remains ahead.

This survey was conducted by Galaxy Research on 14 January 2015. The results are based on the opinions of 610 voters in Cairns, 700 voters in Barron River, 600 voters in Mulgrave, 511 voters in Greenslopes, 644 voters in Mundingburra, 696 voters in Thuringowa, 611 voters in Townsville and 567 voters in Pumicestone. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.


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