Polling

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2/4 Dec 2014

SUPPORT FOR COALITION SLUMPS

Support for the Coalition has slumped with Labor now leading on primary support for the first time since the Abbott Government was elected. In addition, the performance of Joe Hockey since the handing down of the Coalition’s first Budget has led many voters to believe that Malcolm Turnbull would be a better choice as Treasurer.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 23/25 July 2014 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014 2/4 Dec 2014
Coalition 45.5% 39% 42% 38%
Labor Party 33.4% 37% 36% 41%
The Greens 8.7% 11% 12% 11%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 7% 4% 4%
Another party or an independent candidate 6.9% 6% 6% 6%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 23/25 July 2014 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014 2/4 Dec 2014
Coalition 53.5% 48% 49% 45%
Labor Party 46.5% 52% 51% 55%

Better choice as Treasurer

Total Labor Coalition
Malcolm Turnbull 41% 53% 32%
Joe Hockey 22% 10% 42%
Uncommitted 37% 37% 26%

In your opinion who would be the better choice as Treasurer?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 2-4 December 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,406 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

25/26 Nov 2014

LABOR HOLD COMFORTABLE LEAD IN VICTORIA

Labor is holding a comfortable lead on the eve of the state election and Opposition Leader, Daniel Andrews, has narrowed the gap on Denis Napthine on the Better Premier question from 16 points at the end of October to just 3 points.

Primary Vote

Election Nov 2010 22/24 Oct 2014 18/19 Nov 2014 25/26 Nov 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 35% 35% 34%
The Nationals 6.8% 5% 5% 6%
Total Coalition 44.8% 40% 40% 40%
Labor Party 36.2% 38% 39% 39%
The Greens 11.2% 13% 13% 13%
Another party or an independent candidate 7.8% 9% 8% 8%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 22/24 Oct 2014 18/19 Nov 2014 25/26 Nov 2014
Coalition 51.6% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 48.4% 52% 52% 52%

Better Premier

25/26 Nov 2014 Supporters
22/24 Oct 2014 18/19 Nov 2014 Total Coaltion Labor
Denis Napthine 43% 42% 41% 83% 12%
Daniel Andrews 27% 30% 38% 5% 71%
Uncommitted 30% 28% 21% 12% 17%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 25 and 26 November 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,090 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.

19/20 Nov 2014

COALITION SUPPORT INCREASING UNDER BAIRD

The Coalition has increased its lead over Labor under Mike Baird and the Liberal leader enjoys a commanding lead over John Robertson on the better Premier question.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 26/28 May 2014 20/21 Aug 2014 19/20 Nov 2014
The Labor Party 25.6% 37% 35% 34%
The Liberal Party 38.6% 38% 40% 40%
The Nationals 12.5% 5% 5% 6%
Total Coalition 51.1% 43% 45% 46%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 11% 11%
Another party or an independent candidate 13.0% 9% 9% 9%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 26/28 May 2014 20/21 Aug 2014 19/20 Nov 2014
The Labor Party 35.8% 47% 45% 44%
Coalition 64.2% 53% 55% 56%

Better Premier

19/20 Nov 2014 Supporters
26/28 May 2014 Total Labor Coalition
Mike Baird 43% 49% 30% 72%
John Robertson 11% 18% 36% 7%
Uncommitted 46% 33% 34% 21%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 19 and 20 of November 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 938 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

18/19 Nov 2014

LABOR MAINTAINS LEAD

With the election just over one week away the Labor Party is maintaining its lead over the Coalition. Opposition Leader, Daniel Andrews, has been able to make up some ground on Denis Napthine during the campaign but he still lags behind on the better Premier question.

Primary Vote

Election Nov 2010 14/15 Aug 2014 22/24 Oct 2014 18/19 Nov 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 35% 35% 35%
The Nationals 6.8% 5% 5% 5%
Total Coalition 44.8% 40% 40% 40%
Labor Party 36.2% 38% 38% 39%
The Greens 11.2% 12% 13% 13%
Another party or an independent candidate 7.8% 10% 9% 8%

5% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 14/15 Aug 2014 22/24 Oct 2014 18/19 Nov 2014
Coalition 51.6% 48% 48% 48%
Labor 48.4% 52% 52% 52%

Better Premier

18/19 Nov 2014 Supporters
14/15 Aug 2014 22/24 Oct 2014 Total Coalition Labor
Denis Napthine 41% 43% 42% 80% 15%
Daniel Andrews 33% 27% 30% 6% 58%
Uncommitted 26% 30% 28% 14% 27%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 18 and 19 November 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 924 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.

18/19 Nov 2014

SUPPORT FOR LNP DROPS TO NEW LOW

Support for the LNP has dropped to a new low despite a lift in the personal standing of Campbell Newman. The LNP and Labor are locked at 50-50 per cent support on a two-party-preferred basis. This represents a significant improvement since the March 2012 election when Labor support was just 37.2%.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2012 21/22 May 2014 12/14 Aug 2014 18/19 Nov 2014
LNP 49.7% 43% 39% 37%
Labor 26.7% 34% 36% 38%
The Greens 7.5% 8% 7% 9%
Katter Australian Party 11.5% 5% 3% 3%
Palmer United Party -% -% 12% 7%
Another party or an independent candidate 4.6% 10% 3% 6%

6% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2012* 21/22 May 2014 12/14 Aug 2014 18/19 Nov 2014
LNP 62.8% 55% 52% 50%
Labor 37.2% 45% 48% 50%

* Malcolm Mackerras estimate

Satisfaction with Campbell Newman

18/19 Nov 2014 Supporters
21/22 May 2014 12/14 Aug 2014 Total Labor LNP
Satisfied 36% 36% 41% 20% 77%
Dissatisfied 55% 56% 51% 74% 16%
Uncommitted 9% 8% 8% 6% 7%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Firstly, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Campbell Newman is doing his job as Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 18 and 19 November 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 800 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Queensland population.

13 Nov 2014

MIXED RESULTS FOR LABOR IN KEY MARGINALS

At the mid-point of the campaign the Labor Party have pulled ahead in the seat of Buninyong but are at risk of falling short in the Liberal held seat of Bentleigh. The seat of Bentleigh represents one of the most marginal seats at the forthcoming state election and one the Labor Party would be expected to win if they are to form government after the election on 29 November.

Bentleigh primary vote

Election Nov 2010 13 Nov 2014
Liberal 47.2% 48%
Labor 38.5% 35%
The Greens 11.0% 11%
Other candidates 3.3% 6%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 13 Nov 2014
Liberal 50.9% 52%
Labor 49.1% 48%

Buninyong primary vote

Election Nov 2010 13 Nov 2014
Liberal 42.5% 37%
Labor 40.9% 40%
The Greens 11.3% 13%
Nationals 0.8% 6%
Other candidates 4.5% 4%

3% uncommitted or refused excluded

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 13 Nov 2014
Liberal 48.4% 46%
Labor 51.6% 54%

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research on the evening of 13 November 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 706 voters in Bentleigh and 527 voters in Buninyong. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of each electorate.

22-24 October

LABOR MAINTAINS LEAD IN VICTORIA

With five weeks to election day the Labor Party is maintaining its lead over the Coalition. However, while the Labor Party may enjoy an election winning lead, Denis Napthine has improved his standing as the better Premier.

Primary Vote

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 14/15 Aug 2014 22/24 Oct 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 37% 35% 35%
The Nationals 6.8% 5% 5% 5%
Total Coalition 44.8% 42% 40% 40%
Labor Party 36.2% 39% 38% 38%
The Greens 11.2% 12% 12% 13%
Palmer United Party -% -% 3% 2%
Another party or an independent candidate 7.8% 7% 7% 7%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 14/15 Aug 2014 22/24 Oct 2014
Coalition 51.6% 49% 48% 48%
Labor 48.4% 51% 52% 52%

Preferred Premier

22/24 Oct 2014 Supporters
26/27 Feb 2014 14/15 Aug 2014 Total Coalition Labor
Denis Napthine 40% 41% 43% 81% 22%
Daniel Andrews 32% 33% 27% 5% 53%
Uncommitted 28% 26% 30% 14% 25%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 22 October and 24 October 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 800 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.

30 Sept – 2 Oct 2014

BOOST TO COALITION AS VOTERS BACK ABBOTT’S RESPONSE TO IS

Support for the Coalition has increased for the third successive Galaxy Poll as voters endorse the Abbott Government’s response to the rise of the IS.

Primary Vote

Election Sept 2013 14/16 May 2014 23/25 July 2014 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014
Coalition 45.5% 38% 39% 42%
Labor Party 33.4% 38% 37% 36%
The Greens 8.7% 10% 11% 12%
Palmer United Party 5.5% 8% 7% 4%
Another party or an independent candidate 6.9% 6% 6% 6%

9% uncommitted or refused excluded

If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Sept 2013 14/16 May 2014 23/25 July 2014 30 Sept/2 Oct 2014
Coalition 53.5% 47% 48% 49%
Labor Party 46.5% 53% 52% 51%

Strikes against IS

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Support 62% 58% 78%
Oppose 21% 28% 10%
Uncommitted 17% 14% 12%

Thinking now about the Islamic State, or IS as it is also known. Do you support or oppose the Australian Air Force joining other countries in air strikes against the IS?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered by a combination of online and telephone interviews between 30 September and 2 October 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 1,196 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Australian population.

20/21 August

COALITION RECOVERS IN NSW

The Coalition under Mike Baird has recovered much of the ground it lost shortly after Barry O’Farrell’s epic memory fail at the ICAC inquiry. Despite the ICAC inquiries focusing on the fundraising activities of the Liberal Party in recent times, Premier Mike Baird is still considered a better choice to tackle corruption in the NSW government than opposition leader, John Robertson.

Primary Vote

Election Mar 2011 12/16 Sept 2012 26/28 May 2014 20/21 Aug 2014
The Labor Party 25.6% 31% 37% 35%
The Liberal Party 38.6% 42% 38% 40%
The Nationals 12.5% 5% 5% 5%
Total Coalition 51.1% 47% 43% 45%
The Greens 10.3% 11% 11% 11%
Another party or an independent candidate 13.0% 11% 9% 9%

7% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for New South Wales was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Mar 2011 12/16 Sept 2012 26/28 May 2014 20/21 Aug 2014
The Labor Party 35.8% 42% 47% 45%
Coalition 64.2% 58% 53% 55%

Better to tackle corruption

Supporters
Total Labor Coalition
Mike Baird 43% 21% 69%
John Robertson 15% 31% 6%
Uncommitted 42% 48% 25%

Which leader do you believe is best able to tackle corruption in the NSW government?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 20-21 of August 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 889 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the population of NSW.

14-15 August

LABOR AHEAD WITH 100 DAYS TO GO IN VICTORIA

With around 100 days to election day the Labor Party has opened up a lead over the Coalition. However, while the Labor Party may enjoy an election winning lead, Denis Napthine is still considered a better option for Premier than Daniel Andrews.

Primary Vote

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 14/15 Aug 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 37% 35%
The Nationals 6.8% 5% 5%
Total Coalition 44.8% 42% 40%
Labor Party 36.2% 39% 38%
The Greens 11.2% 12% 12%
Palmer United Party -% -% 3%
Another party or an independent candidate 7.8% 7% 7%

4% uncommitted or refused excluded

Thinking about state politics. If a state election for Victoria was held today, which one of the following would you vote for?

Two party preferred

Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014 14/15 Aug 2014
Coalition 51.6% 49% 48%
Labor 48.4% 51% 52%

Preferred Premier

14/15 Aug 2014 Supporters
26/27 Feb 2014 Total Coalition Labor
Denis Napthine 40% 41% 78% 18%
Daniel Andrews 32% 33% 8% 58%
Uncommitted 28% 26% 14% 24%

Thinking now about the leaders of the parties. Who do you think would make the better Premier?

These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the evenings of 14-15 August 2014. The results are based on the opinions of 843 voters. The data has been weighted and projected to reflect the Victorian population.


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