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Queensland election

Queensland election: Spot-on Newspoll proves the winner

Sid Maher. The Australian. 27 November 2017

Newspoll has again proven the most accurate guide to voters’ intentions, with the election-day poll coming closest to picking the actual outcome.

Saturday’s Newspoll, published in The Weekend Australian, put support for the Labor Party at 36 per cent, the Liberal National Party at 34 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at 13 per cent.

Others made up the remaining 7 per cent.

Counting yesterday had the ALP on 36 per cent, the LNP on 33.4 per cent, One Nation on 13.7 per cent and the Greens on 9.9 per cent.

Others were running at 7 per cent. However, these figures could change slightly as postal votes are yet to be counted.

If past election trends are repeated in this weekend’s poll the LNP’s vote could also improve slightly.

Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs, who runs Newspoll, said the final poll provided the best guide to the election outcome in Queensland.

“Following on from the success at the federal election last year, the recent plebiscite and now this state election, Newspoll has confirmed its credentials as the gold standard in polling,’’ Mr Briggs said.

The most recent Sky News ReachTel poll had under estimated support for the major parties with the final poll putting Labor on 34 per cent and the LNP on 31 per cent.

Newspoll also accurately predicted the results of the same-sex marriage survey earlier this month.

Its final survey showed 79 per cent of Australians had voted in the plebiscite, with the Yes vote leading the No vote by 63 per cent to 37 per cent.

The final Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released yesterday revealed 79.5 per cent of Australians took part.

The Yes vote was recorded at 61.6 per cent, compared with 38.4 per cent for those voting No.

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Newspoll Nov 30 – Dec 3

Primary Vote

Election Jul 2 2016 26/29 Oct 2017 9/12 Nov 2017 30 Nov/3 Dec 2017
Coalition 42.1% 35% 34% 36%
Labor 34.7% 37% 38% 37%
Greens 10.2% 10% 9% 10%
One Nation 1.3% 9% 10% 8%
Others 11.7% 9% 9% 9%

6 per cent ‘uncommitted’ excluded

If a federal election for the House of Representatives was held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If ‘uncommitted’, to which one of these do you have a leaning?

Two party preferred

Election Jul 2 2016 26/29 Oct 2017 9/12 Nov 2017 30 Nov/3 Dec 2017
Coalition 50.4% 46% 45% 47%
Labor 49.6% 54% 55% 53%

Based on preference flow at July 2016 federal election

Turnbull’s Performance

12/15 Oct 2017 26/29 Oct 2017 9/12 Nov 2017 30 Nov/3 Dec 2017
Satisfied 32% 31% 29% 32%
Dissatisfied 56% 59% 58% 57%
Uncommitted 12% 10% 13% 11%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Malcolm Turnbull is doing his job as Prime Minister?

Shorten’s Performance

12/15 Oct 2017 26/29 Oct 2017 9/12 Nov 2017 30 Nov/3 Dec 2017
Satisfied 33% 32% 34% 33%
Dissatisfied 55% 56% 53% 54%
Uncommitted 12% 12% 13% 13%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Bill Shorten is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition?

Better Prime Minister

12/15 Oct 2017 26/29 Oct 2017 9/12 Nov 2017 30 Nov/3 Dec 2017
Turnbull 41% 41% 36% 39%
Shorten 33% 33% 34% 33%
Uncommitted 26% 26% 30% 28%

Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister?

These surveys were conducted in all states of Australia and in both city and country areas. The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution. The latest survey is based on 1,560 interviews among voters. The maximum sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Copyright at all times remains with Newspoll.

More polls

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